The risk is that a hotter-than-expected June inflation report — one that Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently called among the most important for assessing the impact of tariffs — could slow the pace at which the central bank lowers interest rates. Importantly, that could also throw a wrench into the stock market’s record-setting rally.

Some economists think inflation will hit 3.5% in this morning’s report, coming in above the Bank of England’s forecast. We look at what to expect.