The NFL is back for Week 5 and while we’re not into the dog days of the season, things have settled down for the long haul. It feels like once we get into October, the next benchmark is the Thanksgiving slate.

Indianapolis has won two straight and heads to Pittsburgh having not allowed more than 20 points in either of those two wins. Alec Pierce's injury remains an issue but Pittsburgh just lost to the Browns and remains inconsistent. The Colts are fully capable of getting a positive result here. Indianapolis covers in 55% of the model's simulations.

Survivor contests blend looking ahead with staying present, though it’s getting hard to look too far down the road given the early-season chaos. Everyone approaches these pools differently, so I’m laying out a buffet of picks for you to consider,